Hockey Thoughts: Playoff Push

I fell asleep with about ten minutes left to play in the Nashville vs. San Jose game last night, the score tied 2-2.  I woke up a few minutes ago and couldn't fall back asleep, so I grabbed the remote and turned it to the NHL Network to check the outcome of the game.  No big surprise, Nashville lost 3-2 in overtime.  San Jose is far enough ahead of us that their win doesn't really hurt us, but our loss does, even with the one point.  Time is running out on the season, and there aren't many "next games" left.

Today is exactly one month, and fifteen games, until the end of the regular season.  I just took a glance at Nashville's remaining schedule and became even more discouraged.  Even though all but a few games are at home, the majority of them are against teams either right above us, or right below us in the standings, making them very important four-point games.  Especially since the Western Conference points race is so tight.

I also noticed that while the points race remains tight, it's getting less so every day.  Just a week or so ago, four points separated 4th place from 12th place.  Today that gap is ten.  The current 12th place team, Columbus, is now all but out.  Five points now separate 4th from 11th, and four points separate 5th from 11th.  The 5th, 6th and 7th place teams are tied, as are the 8th and 9th.  Nashville sits in 10th, on the very cusp of still being in contention for one of the final playoff spots.

Outside the Blackhawks eight game winning streak (which ended last night), no team is really hot or really cold, so it's hard to look at the remaining schedule of the other teams and get an idea of how they are likely to finish. 

Looking at the Preds remaining schedule, six games are against teams with no hope of making the playoffs, but that is actually more dangerous this time of year because those teams tend to be spoilers.  And there have been quite a few games in the last month or so where the "cellar dwelling" teams have pulled some upsets against teams working hard to secure a playoff spot.  It also has seemed to be the case the past few seasons, and even more so this season, that the Preds play to their opponent.  They've already had a heck of a time with most of those teams this year, too.  Therefore, I'm not encouraged that there are a potential twelve points to be had out of these games. 

I'm going to guess they get one of two against Colorado, lose to Edmonton (who they've struggled to beat all year), and Atlanta--for a pickup of two points in those four games.  I'm split on Columbus, though, because even though we've had a hard time with them this season and I'm inclined to chalk it up as a loss, it is the last home game and the Preds usually pull out a win for the "Fangtastic Fanale."  So, I'll give that one a wary win, and I think they will beat St. Louis in St. Louis for the last game of the season.  That brings the total there to six points out of a possible twelve.

As for the teams that are still in playoff contention, I'll start with Detroit.  We have two home games remaining against the Wings.  The Wings have a pretty comfortable lead on the Division, so long as Chicago mellows out a bit, which I think they will.  Detroit will want to hit the 100-point mark, though, and are usually closer at this point in the season it seems, but only need fourteen (out of a remaining thirty two) points to get there.  These games are pride games, too, meaning I don't expect Detroit to roll over, but they also aren't stupid--the second game is very close to the end of the season and they aren't going to go balls to the wall if they don't have to, heading into the playoffs.  So, I expect the Preds to get two points out of those games, if not all four.  But I can safely give them two, so we'll go with that.

Next up is the game this Thursday against Minnesota, who is sitting in 9th, one point ahead of us today.  Minnesota has been quietly advancing in the standings for the last two months, very much under the radar.  Nashville always seems to have trouble with them.  This one is a tough call for me, but I think Minnesota coming off a win and Nashville coming off a loss, might give Nashville the edge--IF they can start playing with some urgency, that I have not seen to-date.  So I'm reluctantly giving Nashville one point in this one, because I feel that if they lose, it will be an OT loss, and if they get two, then that just improves their chances over my calculations.  One point is the safe answer here.

After that we have L.A., currently sitting in 8th, but tied in points with Minnesota in 9th.  L.A. seems to have multiple personality disorder this season and some issues with confidence, given that they were projected to be a juggernaut this season and fell flat.  We've had issues with them, especially that 8-1 whacking back in December, but I'm calling this one for Nashville.  So two more points.

Boston is next in line, and I'm not even hesitating to call this one for Boston.  They are simply a stronger team, and even though their playoff spot is secure, their lead in their Division is not, and they want home ice advantage in the first round, so I expect them to play full-tilt.  Nashville also has not done well against Eastern Conference teams this season.  Aside from that, they have the only goalie in the league with better stats than Rinne, and since Nashville still has an inability to score, I don't see this one going our way.  Zero points against Boston.

Nashville then faces Buffalo, in Buffalo, and again I have no hesitation calling it for Buffalo--and for many of the same reasons that apply to Boston.  Buffalo is playing exceptionally well right now, but is barely hanging on to the 8th seed in the East.  They will put up a fight.  They have outstanding goaltending, as well, which will stump our shooters.  It's also an early afternoon game, and the Preds haven't tended to do well with games outside of the regular time slot this season.  I guess their internal clocks get thrown off.  Who the hell knows!  But zero points in Buffalo.

Then we come back home to face Anaheim.  The Ducks currently sit in 11th place, the final slot with hopes of making the playoffs.  Of course, there's two weeks between now and then, so their position will likely change, but I don't see them making a strong run of it and advancing much.  Selanne typically has our number, but I think Nashville will take this one, especially if Dan Ellis is in goal for them, and he likely will be.  Ellis is a sensitive goalie, in that it's very easy to get inside his head, and once you have, he's done for.  being back in Nashville will probably rattle him enough to get a few pucks by him, and into the net.  Two points here for Nashville.

Dallas comes into town next, and I'm calling this one for Dallas.  They currently sit in 5th, three points ahead of Nashville.  We typically put up a decent fight against Dallas, especially at home, and I have nothing to base my guess on, really, except that Nashville can't seem to string up back-to-back wins this year to save their lives.  I don't expect that to change down the stretch--if I did, I wouldn't be so doubtful of their playoff chances.  Nashville also seems to choke in front of the sell-out home crowds this season, and since this is a Saturday game against a popular team, and one of the last games, it should be a sell-out or near one.  So, a previous win against Anaheim plus a capacity crowd equals zero points against Dallas.

That brings us to the final game about which to prognosticate: Vancouver.  With a fair amount of confidence I'm giving this one to Nashville, for similar reasons to the Detroit match-ups.  Nashville has finally started giving Vancouver some headaches this season.  Even though Vancouver is red-hot, sitting in first with a mind-numbing and league-leading 96 points, I think they will have let off the gas some by that point in the season.  They all but have a lock on their Division today (2nd place belongs to Calgary with 79 points), and will likely have secured 1st in the Conference by that time as well as the President's Trophy.  They are going to want to rest up and be ready for the playoffs.  Vancouver is usually very aggressive and dirty, but they aren't going to want to risk any more injuries just two weeks out from the start of the playoffs.  So, two points to Nashville.

That gives the Preds exactly half of the available remaining points, at fifteen, which would bring their season total to ninety one.  Given the teams sitting directly above them, that could be enough to squeak in by the hair on their chinny chin chins.  There's not much threat from anyone behind Nashville, but jumping those ahead of us won't be easy.  At an absolute minimum they will need at least those fifteen points.  Anything less and they are probably toast.  Anything more, well, that would be better.  Expectations, on my part, are certainly tempered.