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With two weeks and seven games left, it's time to check in on my predictions for the playoff push.
So far the Preds are outplaying my expectations. They sometimes ramp it up at the end of the season and surprise me, only to faceplant in the first round. Looks like we're right on track to do that again this year. Of the games played so far that I predicted, the Preds have won three games I chalked up as losses (Edmonton, Boston and Buffalo), and lost one I guessed to be a win (L.A.), meaning they are up two games on my predictions.
Of the two teams they were scheduled to play twice (Colorado and Detroit), they won both of the first match-ups. I predicted they would go one-for-two in each pairing, so we'll see how they pull out the remaining two, still yet to be played (Colorado on Thursday and Detroit next Saturday).
This brings the total points accumulated in the previous eight games to 14, out of a possible 16. Not bad! I had conjectured a total of 15 points for the entire rest of the season, so barring some terrible collapse here in the remaining handful of games, they will beat out my prediction, hopefully by quite a bit! That's a good thing, too, because it is more than clear that 91 total points would not have been enough to get into the 8th spot, and probably not even 12th, when all is said and done.
Tonight the Preds play Dallas, who are sitting in 9th spot with 86 points. The Preds are in 6th, with 90. This should be one hell of a game...and one I had predicted as a loss for Nashville. While I'm encouraged by their play of late, their performance Thursday night against the Ducks was almost embarrassingly catastrophic, and I still don't have much confidence in the team's ability to rise to meet adversity. I'm still cautiously optimistic, but am not willing to change my prediction of a loss. I may add an asterisk and change this one to an OT loss, but a loss just the same.
We have tickets to all of the remaining home games this season, so I'm excited to get to watch this run-up to the playoffs live and in person!
As for my Caps, not much has changed. They've remained on fire, despite a ridiculous loss last night in Ottawa. The team is holding it together despite Green still out indefinitely, Ovi sitting 7-10 days, and Arnott inexplicably MIA. They haven't mathematically clinched the Southeast Division yet, but with Tampa holding a modest 89 points to the Caps 96, I think it's all but in the bag for Washington.
The biggest question is whether, with Philly holding two games in hand, if the Caps can pass them for the Conference lead. Today Philly has 98 points (and again, two games in hand over Washington), but I have confidence that they might just pull it out still.
What dismays me the most right now is that Shittsburgh also managed to somehow get to 96 points, and I will not be much pleased to see them end the season with more points than the Caps. Someone needs to get their shit together here, especially with talk of Crosby returning any day now. Come on Caps, you know you are better than that crappy little team!
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Hockey Thoughts: Playoff Push
I fell asleep with about ten minutes left to play in the Nashville vs. San Jose game last night, the score tied 2-2. I woke up a few minutes ago and couldn't fall back asleep, so I grabbed the remote and turned it to the NHL Network to check the outcome of the game. No big surprise, Nashville lost 3-2 in overtime. San Jose is far enough ahead of us that their win doesn't really hurt us, but our loss does, even with the one point. Time is running out on the season, and there aren't many "next games" left.
Today is exactly one month, and fifteen games, until the end of the regular season. I just took a glance at Nashville's remaining schedule and became even more discouraged. Even though all but a few games are at home, the majority of them are against teams either right above us, or right below us in the standings, making them very important four-point games. Especially since the Western Conference points race is so tight.
I also noticed that while the points race remains tight, it's getting less so every day. Just a week or so ago, four points separated 4th place from 12th place. Today that gap is ten. The current 12th place team, Columbus, is now all but out. Five points now separate 4th from 11th, and four points separate 5th from 11th. The 5th, 6th and 7th place teams are tied, as are the 8th and 9th. Nashville sits in 10th, on the very cusp of still being in contention for one of the final playoff spots.
Outside the Blackhawks eight game winning streak (which ended last night), no team is really hot or really cold, so it's hard to look at the remaining schedule of the other teams and get an idea of how they are likely to finish.
Looking at the Preds remaining schedule, six games are against teams with no hope of making the playoffs, but that is actually more dangerous this time of year because those teams tend to be spoilers. And there have been quite a few games in the last month or so where the "cellar dwelling" teams have pulled some upsets against teams working hard to secure a playoff spot. It also has seemed to be the case the past few seasons, and even more so this season, that the Preds play to their opponent. They've already had a heck of a time with most of those teams this year, too. Therefore, I'm not encouraged that there are a potential twelve points to be had out of these games.
I'm going to guess they get one of two against Colorado, lose to Edmonton (who they've struggled to beat all year), and Atlanta--for a pickup of two points in those four games. I'm split on Columbus, though, because even though we've had a hard time with them this season and I'm inclined to chalk it up as a loss, it is the last home game and the Preds usually pull out a win for the "Fangtastic Fanale." So, I'll give that one a wary win, and I think they will beat St. Louis in St. Louis for the last game of the season. That brings the total there to six points out of a possible twelve.
As for the teams that are still in playoff contention, I'll start with Detroit. We have two home games remaining against the Wings. The Wings have a pretty comfortable lead on the Division, so long as Chicago mellows out a bit, which I think they will. Detroit will want to hit the 100-point mark, though, and are usually closer at this point in the season it seems, but only need fourteen (out of a remaining thirty two) points to get there. These games are pride games, too, meaning I don't expect Detroit to roll over, but they also aren't stupid--the second game is very close to the end of the season and they aren't going to go balls to the wall if they don't have to, heading into the playoffs. So, I expect the Preds to get two points out of those games, if not all four. But I can safely give them two, so we'll go with that.
Next up is the game this Thursday against Minnesota, who is sitting in 9th, one point ahead of us today. Minnesota has been quietly advancing in the standings for the last two months, very much under the radar. Nashville always seems to have trouble with them. This one is a tough call for me, but I think Minnesota coming off a win and Nashville coming off a loss, might give Nashville the edge--IF they can start playing with some urgency, that I have not seen to-date. So I'm reluctantly giving Nashville one point in this one, because I feel that if they lose, it will be an OT loss, and if they get two, then that just improves their chances over my calculations. One point is the safe answer here.
After that we have L.A., currently sitting in 8th, but tied in points with Minnesota in 9th. L.A. seems to have multiple personality disorder this season and some issues with confidence, given that they were projected to be a juggernaut this season and fell flat. We've had issues with them, especially that 8-1 whacking back in December, but I'm calling this one for Nashville. So two more points.
Boston is next in line, and I'm not even hesitating to call this one for Boston. They are simply a stronger team, and even though their playoff spot is secure, their lead in their Division is not, and they want home ice advantage in the first round, so I expect them to play full-tilt. Nashville also has not done well against Eastern Conference teams this season. Aside from that, they have the only goalie in the league with better stats than Rinne, and since Nashville still has an inability to score, I don't see this one going our way. Zero points against Boston.
Nashville then faces Buffalo, in Buffalo, and again I have no hesitation calling it for Buffalo--and for many of the same reasons that apply to Boston. Buffalo is playing exceptionally well right now, but is barely hanging on to the 8th seed in the East. They will put up a fight. They have outstanding goaltending, as well, which will stump our shooters. It's also an early afternoon game, and the Preds haven't tended to do well with games outside of the regular time slot this season. I guess their internal clocks get thrown off. Who the hell knows! But zero points in Buffalo.
Then we come back home to face Anaheim. The Ducks currently sit in 11th place, the final slot with hopes of making the playoffs. Of course, there's two weeks between now and then, so their position will likely change, but I don't see them making a strong run of it and advancing much. Selanne typically has our number, but I think Nashville will take this one, especially if Dan Ellis is in goal for them, and he likely will be. Ellis is a sensitive goalie, in that it's very easy to get inside his head, and once you have, he's done for. being back in Nashville will probably rattle him enough to get a few pucks by him, and into the net. Two points here for Nashville.
Dallas comes into town next, and I'm calling this one for Dallas. They currently sit in 5th, three points ahead of Nashville. We typically put up a decent fight against Dallas, especially at home, and I have nothing to base my guess on, really, except that Nashville can't seem to string up back-to-back wins this year to save their lives. I don't expect that to change down the stretch--if I did, I wouldn't be so doubtful of their playoff chances. Nashville also seems to choke in front of the sell-out home crowds this season, and since this is a Saturday game against a popular team, and one of the last games, it should be a sell-out or near one. So, a previous win against Anaheim plus a capacity crowd equals zero points against Dallas.
That brings us to the final game about which to prognosticate: Vancouver. With a fair amount of confidence I'm giving this one to Nashville, for similar reasons to the Detroit match-ups. Nashville has finally started giving Vancouver some headaches this season. Even though Vancouver is red-hot, sitting in first with a mind-numbing and league-leading 96 points, I think they will have let off the gas some by that point in the season. They all but have a lock on their Division today (2nd place belongs to Calgary with 79 points), and will likely have secured 1st in the Conference by that time as well as the President's Trophy. They are going to want to rest up and be ready for the playoffs. Vancouver is usually very aggressive and dirty, but they aren't going to want to risk any more injuries just two weeks out from the start of the playoffs. So, two points to Nashville.
That gives the Preds exactly half of the available remaining points, at fifteen, which would bring their season total to ninety one. Given the teams sitting directly above them, that could be enough to squeak in by the hair on their chinny chin chins. There's not much threat from anyone behind Nashville, but jumping those ahead of us won't be easy. At an absolute minimum they will need at least those fifteen points. Anything less and they are probably toast. Anything more, well, that would be better. Expectations, on my part, are certainly tempered.
Today is exactly one month, and fifteen games, until the end of the regular season. I just took a glance at Nashville's remaining schedule and became even more discouraged. Even though all but a few games are at home, the majority of them are against teams either right above us, or right below us in the standings, making them very important four-point games. Especially since the Western Conference points race is so tight.
I also noticed that while the points race remains tight, it's getting less so every day. Just a week or so ago, four points separated 4th place from 12th place. Today that gap is ten. The current 12th place team, Columbus, is now all but out. Five points now separate 4th from 11th, and four points separate 5th from 11th. The 5th, 6th and 7th place teams are tied, as are the 8th and 9th. Nashville sits in 10th, on the very cusp of still being in contention for one of the final playoff spots.
Outside the Blackhawks eight game winning streak (which ended last night), no team is really hot or really cold, so it's hard to look at the remaining schedule of the other teams and get an idea of how they are likely to finish.
Looking at the Preds remaining schedule, six games are against teams with no hope of making the playoffs, but that is actually more dangerous this time of year because those teams tend to be spoilers. And there have been quite a few games in the last month or so where the "cellar dwelling" teams have pulled some upsets against teams working hard to secure a playoff spot. It also has seemed to be the case the past few seasons, and even more so this season, that the Preds play to their opponent. They've already had a heck of a time with most of those teams this year, too. Therefore, I'm not encouraged that there are a potential twelve points to be had out of these games.
I'm going to guess they get one of two against Colorado, lose to Edmonton (who they've struggled to beat all year), and Atlanta--for a pickup of two points in those four games. I'm split on Columbus, though, because even though we've had a hard time with them this season and I'm inclined to chalk it up as a loss, it is the last home game and the Preds usually pull out a win for the "Fangtastic Fanale." So, I'll give that one a wary win, and I think they will beat St. Louis in St. Louis for the last game of the season. That brings the total there to six points out of a possible twelve.
As for the teams that are still in playoff contention, I'll start with Detroit. We have two home games remaining against the Wings. The Wings have a pretty comfortable lead on the Division, so long as Chicago mellows out a bit, which I think they will. Detroit will want to hit the 100-point mark, though, and are usually closer at this point in the season it seems, but only need fourteen (out of a remaining thirty two) points to get there. These games are pride games, too, meaning I don't expect Detroit to roll over, but they also aren't stupid--the second game is very close to the end of the season and they aren't going to go balls to the wall if they don't have to, heading into the playoffs. So, I expect the Preds to get two points out of those games, if not all four. But I can safely give them two, so we'll go with that.
Next up is the game this Thursday against Minnesota, who is sitting in 9th, one point ahead of us today. Minnesota has been quietly advancing in the standings for the last two months, very much under the radar. Nashville always seems to have trouble with them. This one is a tough call for me, but I think Minnesota coming off a win and Nashville coming off a loss, might give Nashville the edge--IF they can start playing with some urgency, that I have not seen to-date. So I'm reluctantly giving Nashville one point in this one, because I feel that if they lose, it will be an OT loss, and if they get two, then that just improves their chances over my calculations. One point is the safe answer here.
After that we have L.A., currently sitting in 8th, but tied in points with Minnesota in 9th. L.A. seems to have multiple personality disorder this season and some issues with confidence, given that they were projected to be a juggernaut this season and fell flat. We've had issues with them, especially that 8-1 whacking back in December, but I'm calling this one for Nashville. So two more points.
Boston is next in line, and I'm not even hesitating to call this one for Boston. They are simply a stronger team, and even though their playoff spot is secure, their lead in their Division is not, and they want home ice advantage in the first round, so I expect them to play full-tilt. Nashville also has not done well against Eastern Conference teams this season. Aside from that, they have the only goalie in the league with better stats than Rinne, and since Nashville still has an inability to score, I don't see this one going our way. Zero points against Boston.
Nashville then faces Buffalo, in Buffalo, and again I have no hesitation calling it for Buffalo--and for many of the same reasons that apply to Boston. Buffalo is playing exceptionally well right now, but is barely hanging on to the 8th seed in the East. They will put up a fight. They have outstanding goaltending, as well, which will stump our shooters. It's also an early afternoon game, and the Preds haven't tended to do well with games outside of the regular time slot this season. I guess their internal clocks get thrown off. Who the hell knows! But zero points in Buffalo.
Then we come back home to face Anaheim. The Ducks currently sit in 11th place, the final slot with hopes of making the playoffs. Of course, there's two weeks between now and then, so their position will likely change, but I don't see them making a strong run of it and advancing much. Selanne typically has our number, but I think Nashville will take this one, especially if Dan Ellis is in goal for them, and he likely will be. Ellis is a sensitive goalie, in that it's very easy to get inside his head, and once you have, he's done for. being back in Nashville will probably rattle him enough to get a few pucks by him, and into the net. Two points here for Nashville.
Dallas comes into town next, and I'm calling this one for Dallas. They currently sit in 5th, three points ahead of Nashville. We typically put up a decent fight against Dallas, especially at home, and I have nothing to base my guess on, really, except that Nashville can't seem to string up back-to-back wins this year to save their lives. I don't expect that to change down the stretch--if I did, I wouldn't be so doubtful of their playoff chances. Nashville also seems to choke in front of the sell-out home crowds this season, and since this is a Saturday game against a popular team, and one of the last games, it should be a sell-out or near one. So, a previous win against Anaheim plus a capacity crowd equals zero points against Dallas.
That brings us to the final game about which to prognosticate: Vancouver. With a fair amount of confidence I'm giving this one to Nashville, for similar reasons to the Detroit match-ups. Nashville has finally started giving Vancouver some headaches this season. Even though Vancouver is red-hot, sitting in first with a mind-numbing and league-leading 96 points, I think they will have let off the gas some by that point in the season. They all but have a lock on their Division today (2nd place belongs to Calgary with 79 points), and will likely have secured 1st in the Conference by that time as well as the President's Trophy. They are going to want to rest up and be ready for the playoffs. Vancouver is usually very aggressive and dirty, but they aren't going to want to risk any more injuries just two weeks out from the start of the playoffs. So, two points to Nashville.
That gives the Preds exactly half of the available remaining points, at fifteen, which would bring their season total to ninety one. Given the teams sitting directly above them, that could be enough to squeak in by the hair on their chinny chin chins. There's not much threat from anyone behind Nashville, but jumping those ahead of us won't be easy. At an absolute minimum they will need at least those fifteen points. Anything less and they are probably toast. Anything more, well, that would be better. Expectations, on my part, are certainly tempered.
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