Hockey Talk: The Ups and Downs of November

Last time I wrote about hockey the Preds were still hot, but experiencing a cool down...the first leg of what proved to be a typically dismal November.  I talked about how important the month of November seems to be in the context of the whole season and the lesson the Preds should have taken away is that their room for error is no more.  Due to their lackluster play and seeming inability to score more than one goal per game they will be clawing their way back into the top eight and praying for a playoff spot once again.  As of today they sit in the middle of their Division, just one or two measly points above St. Louis and Columbus--two teams that were also red hot and threatening to bury the Preds completely in the month of November.  The Preds also find themselves in 6th place in the Conference by virtue of no points, with the 7th, 8th and 9th place teams tied in points, and the three below those tied with one fewer point.  The Western Conference is notorious for tight races on the lower end of the points spectrum and this year is shaping up to be no different than before.

What is different is that the Preds are clearly not that great of a team this year, while some of the teams that currently surround them in the standings are stronger, and pose a serious threat down the stretch if they remain healthy.  Everyone speaks of Detroit as the powerhouse yet again, but they lead the Division not by a wide margin, but a narrow one.  One thing that has certainly helped keep the Preds out of the basement to this point is the ridiculous number of OT/Shootout games they have played, giving them 6 extra points for still losing.  If they had even a couple fewer OT games they would still be in the points basement.  The flip side of that is the fact that several of the OT wins have come at the hands of Divisional opponents, so they still gave a point to a team that they have to watch over their shoulders the remainder of the season.

The worst part is that I can't seem to accurately diagnose what exactly ails the Predators right now.  They don't appear to be playing much different than the beginning of the season, but their ability to break out of the zone has gone to shit, they aren't completing the long passes that they seemingly mastered at the beginning of the year, and they are back to the pass-pass-pass mentality that has doomed them in every previous season.  They are still getting a respectable number of shots on goal in most games, but the biscuit just isn't finding the basket.  Strong goaltending from Lindback has been a Godsend this year since Rinne has been out with an injury twice already.  Rinne's performance has been steady but not as good as I'd like to see from him.  I've also noticed an astonishing lack of creativity with scoring, because when the team scores one goal they seem to try and score the exact same way the rest of the game.  It's like they hadn't even been studying for the game at all, but when one thing works they decide to stick with it because they were ill prepared to face that team's defence and goalie to begin with.  It's maddening!

I can say without any doubt that the Preds defense has been sloppy, and Shea Weber is in some sort of funk that he can't seem to get out of.  He's taken way to many penalties out of frustration, and the rest of the D-Core isn't helping.  The team CANNOT clear the puck out of their zone to save their lives and I've witnessed way too many D-plays gone awry in front of our net.  And in what looks like nothing more than a desperate attempt to do something fancy, the overuse of the drop pass has returned.  Granted, there have been a few that connected and led to very pretty goals.  But there have been more that led to pathetic turnovers and odd-man rushes to the other end of the ice.  Trotz needs to move on from the drop pass because this is not a team that can handle the speed of opposing teams when the play fails, and this is putting unnecessary strain on the goalies.

One of the most noticeable changes at the start of the season, when the team was doing well, was that they played the full sixty minutes of the game.  They came out strong and did not let off the gas.  Welcome change, no question.  Permanent change, not a chance.  The Preds still need a reminder that the game has three periods, twenty minutes each, and if they aren't going to show up to play them all then they might as well not show up at all. 

Simple, gritty hockey was what propelled the team to a strong start.  I'm not sure if they became complacent because of their early success or if the slump started to get to them and they felt the need to try and change things up a bit to get out of it, which further exacerbated the slide, or what.  But they just need to remember what they were doing in October and get back to that.  They've warmed back up these first two weeks of December, but only marginally.  Scoring is still somewhat of an issue, but the goaltending has kept them in the game despite the lack of offensive capability.  We've gotten to the playoffs before on the strength of goaltending alone, so I know it can be done, but it's a hard road and no guarantee.  It's also a first class ticket to go four and out in the first round.